Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms
A network of local volunteer initiatives in Sudan that organizes community support during war. Emergency kitchens, basic services and mutual aid are central to its humanitarian role.
Nobel Peace Prize 2026: Predictions and Market Prices
Explore dated expert views and available public forecasts for the 2026 Peace award, with source distinctions, announcement time and results after release.
Official result
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 market prices
Prices below are last trades on a 0–1 scale, captured at the stated times. Sort each market separately; we do not average prices into a winning probability. A dash means no comparable record. Full contract names and rules matter.
Kalshi ·
| Person or organization | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms | 0.1490637022 | 0.1500KXNOBELPEACE-26-SUD |
| Mykola Kuleba | 0.1000637034 | — |
| Save the Children | 0.0790637031 | — |
| International Court of Justice | 0.0740637009 | 0.0400KXNOBELPEACE-26-ICJ |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 0.0470637004 | — |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 0.0400637025 | — |
| International Criminal Court | 0.0400637035 | — |
| International Space Station | 0.0300637037 | — |
| Sara Al-Saqqa | 0.0290637032 | 0.0180KXNOBELPEACE-26-SAR |
| UNRWA | 0.0270637008 | — |
| Chow Hang-tung | 0.0260637024 | 0.0090KXNOBELPEACE-26-CHOW |
| UNHCR | 0.0210637027 | — |
| Mark Carney | 0.0190637033 | 0.0260KXNOBELPEACE-26-MAR |
| Reporters Without Borders | 0.0180637026 | — |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 0.0160637029 | — |
| Pope Leo XIV | 0.0160637003 | — |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 0.0130637012 | 0.0050KXNOBELPEACE-26-TAM |
| World Central Kitchen | 0.0130637030 | — |
| ICRC | 0.0110637028 | — |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 0.0110637023 | — |
| Doctors Without Borders | 0.0100637036 | 0.0300KXNOBELPEACE-26-DOC |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 0.0100637011 | 0.0100KXNOBELPEACE-26-VOL |
| Parents Circle – Families Forum | 0.0100637038 | 0.0030KXNOBELPEACE-26-PCFF |
| International Association of Judges | 0.0100637039 | — |
| International Peace Research Association | 0.0100637040 | — |
| António Guterres | 0.0090637010 | — |
| Greta Thunberg | 0.0070637006 | 0.0680KXNOBELPEACE-26-GRET |
| Donald Trump | 0.0070637002 | 0.0100KXNOBELPEACE-26-DJT |
| Julian Assange | 0.0070637005 | — |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 0.0030637018 | — |
| Yad Vashem | 0.0020637041 | 0.0070KXNOBELPEACE-26-YAD |
| Xi Jinping | 0.0020637017 | — |
| Elon Musk | 0.0010637007 | 0.0100KXNOBELPEACE-26-ELO |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0.0010637015 | — |
| Charlie Kirk | 0.0010637019 | — |
| Khaled Mashal | 0.0010637014 | — |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 0.0010637020 | — |
| Narendra Modi | 0.0010637021 | — |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 0.0010637016 | — |
| Vladimir Putin | 0.0010637013 | — |
| International Space Station / ISS partnership | — | 0.0500KXNOBELPEACE-26-ISS |
| Reporters Without Borders (RSF) | — | 0.0150KXNOBELPEACE-26-RSF |
| International Association of Judges (IAJ) | — | 0.0140KXNOBELPEACE-26-IAJ |
| Campaign to Stop Killer Robots | — | 0.0100KXNOBELPEACE-26-CSKR |
| Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue | — | 0.0100KXNOBELPEACE-26-CE |
| Dario Amodei | — | 0.0100KXNOBELPEACE-26-DAR |
| European Union | — | 0.0100KXNOBELPEACE-26-EUR |
| Francesca Albanese | — | 0.0100KXNOBELPEACE-26-FRA |
| Minneapolis | — | 0.0100KXNOBELPEACE-26-MIN |
| Narges Mohammadi | — | 0.0100KXNOBELPEACE-26-NAR |
| Sam Altman | — | 0.0100KXNOBELPEACE-26-SAM |
| International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) | — | 0.0090KXNOBELPEACE-26-ICRC |
| Vanessa Nakate | — | 0.0080KXNOBELPEACE-26-VNAK |
| Svalbard Global Seed Vault | — | 0.0060KXNOBELPEACE-26-SGSV |
| International Peace Research Association (IPRA) | — | 0.0040KXNOBELPEACE-26-IPRA |
| World Trade Organization | — | 0.0040KXNOBELPEACE-26-WTO |
| Matt Meyer | — | 0.0030KXNOBELPEACE-26-MMEY |
| Concordis International | — | 0.0020KXNOBELPEACE-26-CONC |
Research and work
Humanitarian work · journalism · international cooperation
Source comparison
| Person or organization | Source type | Contract price | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mykola Kuleba · Save the ChildrenExpert view | Expert view | — | PRIO |
| Mykola KulebaMarket quote | Market quote | 0.10000–1 · Last tradeCaptured: | Polymarket |
| Mykola KulebaMarket quote | Market quote | — | Kalshi |
| Save the ChildrenMarket quote | Market quote | 0.07900–1 · Last tradeCaptured: | Polymarket |
| Save the ChildrenMarket quote | Market quote | — | Kalshi |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response RoomsExpert view | Expert view | — | PRIO |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response RoomsMarket quote | Market quote | 0.14900–1 · Last tradeCaptured: | Polymarket |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response RoomsMarket quote | Market quote | 0.15000–1 · Last tradeCaptured: | Kalshi |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response RoomsCommunity forecast | Community forecast | — | Metaculus |
| Committee to Protect JournalistsExpert view | Expert view | — | PRIO |
| Committee to Protect JournalistsMarket quote | Market quote | 0.04000–1 · Last tradeCaptured: | Polymarket |
| International Court of Justice · International Criminal CourtExpert view | Expert view | — | PRIO |
| International Court of JusticeMarket quote | Market quote | 0.07400–1 · Last tradeCaptured: | Polymarket |
| International Court of JusticeMarket quote | Market quote | 0.04000–1 · Last tradeInternational Court of Justice (ICJ)Captured: | Kalshi |
| International Criminal CourtMarket quote | Market quote | 0.04000–1 · Last tradeCaptured: | Polymarket |
| International Criminal CourtMarket quote | Market quote | — | Kalshi |
| International Space StationExpert view | Expert view | — | PRIO |
| International Space StationMarket quote | Market quote | 0.03000–1 · Last tradeCaptured: | Polymarket |
No record is different from a zero probability. We do not create a prediction record when evidence is missing.
These are dated public records. Follow the original source for its latest information.
Current nomination records are confidential for 50 years. An expert recommendation or a market listing does not establish an official nomination.
Field guide
Start with the awarding body and selection rules, then explore contributions and verified past recipients. The current-year discussion is kept on its own annual page.
Nobel Peace PrizePredictions vs official results
Records taken before the announcement remain separate from the final result. Historical accuracy requires a stated cutoff and a visible denominator.
| Award fields | Prediction record | Official result |
|---|---|---|
| Nobel Peace Prize | Preserved before the announcementPrediction record
| Awaiting announcement |
Related reading
Save the Children
An international organization working on children’s rights, health, education and emergency response. PRIO’s 2026 recommendation pairs it with Mykola Kuleba; that pairing should be preserved when comparing sources.
Committee to Protect Journalists
An organization that documents threats to journalists and supports press freedom. Its work connects public information, journalist safety and accountability.
International Court of Justice
The principal judicial organ of the United Nations, based in The Hague. It handles legal disputes between states and gives advisory opinions; it is distinct from the International Criminal Court.