prediction record · Nobel Prizes
We do not publish an accuracy score: the current snapshots do not constitute a complete record captured before each announcement. A retrospective comparison needs a fixed cutoff, the original list and explicit scoring rules.
Predictions vs official results
Records taken before the announcement remain separate from the final result. Historical accuracy requires a stated cutoff and a visible denominator.
| Award fields | Prediction record | Official result |
|---|---|---|
| Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine | No preserved pre-announcement snapshot | Karl Deisseroth · Peter Hegemann · Georg Nagel |
| Nobel Prize in Physics | No preserved pre-announcement snapshot | Francis Halzen |
| Nobel Prize in Chemistry | Preserved before the announcementPrediction record
| Awaiting announcement |
| Nobel Prize in Literature | Preserved before the announcementPrediction record
| Awaiting announcement |
| Nobel Peace Prize | Preserved before the announcementPrediction record
| Awaiting announcement |
| Nobel Prize in Economics | Preserved before the announcementPrediction record | Awaiting announcement |
We do not publish an accuracy score: the current snapshots do not constitute a complete record captured before each announcement. A retrospective comparison needs a fixed cutoff, the original list and explicit scoring rules.
Evidence
Read each source within its own scope. A name appearing in several lists is a useful observation, not a calculated chance of winning.